An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus

Abstract

The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model – correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository).

The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones).

The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project).

In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.

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Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data

Abstract

The land use and land cover (LUC) of the Zêzere watershed (Portugal) have undergone major changes in recent decades, with the increase of artificial surfaces. This trend is quantified in some studies, but the probability of the increase of this type of LUC, nor the places where the next transitions or land use/cover changes (LUCC) for artificial surfaces will have high probability of occurrence has not yet been assessed. This research presents an evaluation of these two aspects, by means of bivariate statistical models (fuzzy logic and information value) and environmental data. The artificialization probability by sectors within the same watershed is also evaluated, to further understand which areas will require greater attention, taking into account the environmental conditions favorable to the occurrence of this process and bearing in mind the conditions under which this process took place in the past. The results obtained using these models were assessed independently, through curves of success, noting that the modeling through the fuzzy gamma presents slightly better efficiency in determining the probability of artificialization surfaces in the study area. The area with the highest probability of artificialization is mostly located in the SW of this watershed, but high probabilities are also present in the upstream sector, being those areas that require further preventive measures once they have influence on the water quality and quantity in the main reservoirs of this watershed.

Keywords: LUC; LUCC; artificial surfaces; fuzzy logic; information value; spatial analysis; water quality

Meneses, B.M.; Reis, E.; Vale, M.J.; Reis, R. Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data. Water 2016, 8, 289.

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Deslocação de dois músicos da Banda Musical de Gouviães

Fotografia com mais de meio século tirada para uma revista sobre etnografia, mais tarde convertida em poster.

Cortesia de Rosa do Carmo Mendonça (filha e neta dos músicos).

Banda Musical de Gouviães (1911)

An integrated approach for wind fields assessment in coastal areas, based on bioindicators, CFD modeling, and observations

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Bruno M. Meneses; António Lopes

Abstract

Wind-deformed trees can be good bioindicators of the mean wind speed and prevailing wind directions. The current research used bioindicators, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and linear models to assess the wind fields in the windy coastal area of Cascais/Portugal. The main objectives of this research are to assess mean speed and directions of winds by using bioindicators and modeling techniques and to correlate both results in order to assess the best methods. The results obtained with the bioindicators showed that carpeting, the most severe deformation, was observed near the shoreline showing that the highest wind speeds are felt in this sector. Inland, where the winds have lower mean speeds, flagging forms are more frequent. When correlated with the bioindicators, the linear model gave better results than CFD models. We can conclude that in areas with good wind potential, the use of bioindicators can be a good alternative in the absence of wind data.

Original Paper

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

pp 1-10

First online: 29 December 2015

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Reference:

Meneses, BM; Lopes, A (2015) - An integrated approach for wind fields assessment in coastal areas, based on bioindicators, CFD modeling, and observations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123, pp. 1-10.

Land use and land cover changes in Zêzere watershed (Portugal) — Water quality implications

• Science of The Total Environment
  Volumes 527–528, 15 September 2015, Pages 439–447
  
  
• B.M. Meneses^a, b, , , , 
• R. Reis^a, 
• M.J. Vale^a, 
• R. Saraiva^a

Highlights

•

LUCCs for artificial soils constitute a reduction factor of water quality.

•

The wastewater drainage into watercourses is an aggravating factor of water quality.

•

Forestry areas in upstream of the dams have higher importance to water quality.

•

Maintenance and preservation rules are important to the improvement of water quality.

Abstract

To understand the relations between land use allocation and water quality preservation within a watershed is essential to assure sustainable development. The land use and land cover (LUC) within Zêzere River watershed registered relevant changes in the last decades. These land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) have impacts in water quality, mainly in surface water degradation caused by surface runoff from artificial and agricultural areas, forest fires and burnt areas, and caused by sewage discharges from agroindustry and urban sprawl. In this context, the impact of LUCCs in the quality of surface water of the Zêzere watershed is evaluated, considering the changes for different types of LUC and establishing their possible correlations to the most relevant water quality changes. The results indicate that the loss of coniferous forest and the increase of transitional woodland-shrub are related to increased water's pH; while the growth in artificial surfaces and pastures leads mainly to the increase of soluble salts and fecal coliform concentration. These particular findings within the Zêzere watershed, show the relevance of addressing water quality impact driven from land use and should therefore be taken into account within the planning process in order to prevent water stress, namely within watersheds integrating drinking water catchments.

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