Probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndios florestais em Portugal

Assessment of the recurrence interval of wildfires in mainland Portugal and the identification of affected LUC patterns

Bruno M. Meneses ,Eusébio Reis  &Rui Reis 

Pages 282-292 | Received 03 Oct 2017, Accepted 11 Mar 2018, Published online: 22 Apr 2018

ARTIGO

Mapa da probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndios florestais

ABSTRACT
Wildfires are responsible for major land use and land cover (LUC) changes. These events are frequent and catastrophic 
in Portugal and are responsible for great damage and loss of human life. In this study, a map to assess the probability 
of wildfire occurrence (PWO) in mainland Portugal was created for the period 1975-2017 (first half of 2017). The PWO 
was obtained by the superimposition of all layers by adding all the burned areas for the total period. It was observed 
that the occurrences and extent of the burned areas are highly variable from year to year. The PWO map was cross-referenced 
with LUC geoinformation to evaluate the LUC types that were more affected by the wildfires. The results presented and 
the PWO maps are important for the management and planning of forest areas and for the creation of guidelines to 
implement preventive and reactive actions in case of wildfires.

KEYWORDS: Wildfires, occurrence probability, return interval, LUC patterns, mainland Portugal

Sustainability 2017, 9(3), 351; doi:10.3390/su9030351

Understanding Driving Forces and Implications Associated with the Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Portugal

Bruno M. Meneses ^1,* ,Eusébio Reis ¹

,Susana Pereira ¹

,Maria J. Vale ²

 andRui Reis ²

¹

Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edif. IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal

²

General Directorate for Territorial Development (DGT), Rua da Artilharia Um, 107, 1099-052 Lisboa, Portugal

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Abstract

Understanding the processes of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) and the associated driving forces is important for achieving sustainable development. This paper presents the LUCC in Portugal at the regional level (NUTS II) from 1995 to 2010 and discusses the main driving forces and implications associated with these LUCC. The main objectives of this work are: (a) to quantify the land use and land cover (LUC) types (level I of LUC cartography) by NUT II in Portugal for the years 1995, 2007 and 2010; (b) to assess the spatio-temporal LUCC; and (c) to identify and discuss the main driving forces of LUCC and corresponding implications based on correlations and Principal Components Analysis. The results revealed large regional and temporal LUCC and further highlighted the different and sometimes opposite time trends between neighboring regions. By associating driving forces to LUCC, different influences at the regional level were observed, namely LUCC into agriculture land derived from the construction of dams (Alentejo region), or the conversion of coniferous forest into eucalypt forest (Centre region) associated with increased gross value added (GVA) and employment in industry and forestry. Temporal differentiation was also observed, particularly in the settlements that expanded between 1995 and 2007 due to the construction of large infrastructures (e.g., highways, industrial complexes, or buildings), which is reflected on employment in industry and construction and respective GVA. However, certain LUCC have implications, particularly in energy consumption, for which different behavior between regions can be highlighted in this analysis, but also on land-use sustainability. View Full-Text

Keywords: LUC; LUCC; land management; driving forces; implications; LUC sustainability

An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus

Abstract

The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model – correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository).

The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones).

The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project).

In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.

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Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data

Abstract

The land use and land cover (LUC) of the Zêzere watershed (Portugal) have undergone major changes in recent decades, with the increase of artificial surfaces. This trend is quantified in some studies, but the probability of the increase of this type of LUC, nor the places where the next transitions or land use/cover changes (LUCC) for artificial surfaces will have high probability of occurrence has not yet been assessed. This research presents an evaluation of these two aspects, by means of bivariate statistical models (fuzzy logic and information value) and environmental data. The artificialization probability by sectors within the same watershed is also evaluated, to further understand which areas will require greater attention, taking into account the environmental conditions favorable to the occurrence of this process and bearing in mind the conditions under which this process took place in the past. The results obtained using these models were assessed independently, through curves of success, noting that the modeling through the fuzzy gamma presents slightly better efficiency in determining the probability of artificialization surfaces in the study area. The area with the highest probability of artificialization is mostly located in the SW of this watershed, but high probabilities are also present in the upstream sector, being those areas that require further preventive measures once they have influence on the water quality and quantity in the main reservoirs of this watershed.

Keywords: LUC; LUCC; artificial surfaces; fuzzy logic; information value; spatial analysis; water quality

Meneses, B.M.; Reis, E.; Vale, M.J.; Reis, R. Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data. Water 2016, 8, 289.

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Deslocação de dois músicos da Banda Musical de Gouviães

Fotografia com mais de meio século tirada para uma revista sobre etnografia, mais tarde convertida em poster.

Cortesia de Rosa do Carmo Mendonça (filha e neta dos músicos).

Banda Musical de Gouviães (1911)